25分的部署

iantsang

I think there are two questions from the member:

(1) Whether 25 points is secured to reach his wife's old school;
(2) Struggle to apply other "better" DSS/ private schools in parallel.  If being accepted, then how to choose.

First, we have just experienced the first year of P1 allocation with upward trend.  So, we are in a process that we must re-assess all the previous data we collected.  For example, I have seen schools which usually have high chances with 15 points, turns out the DP seats are almost (over 95%) filled with 20 points.  2005 is the first year for birth rate to increase in average of 10-15%.  So there will only be more applications.

Another reason which causes the higher demand of points in DP is due to the seats available in P1.  In the past, some of the popular gov't aided schools can have class size up to almost 40.  However, with the policy implemented two years ago, the biggest size is now 30 (plus 10% door-knocking seats which doesn't affect DP seats).  So, that means there are less seats in DP.

What does it tell us?  There are less DP seats for more babies.  A very simple math.  So it would push the marks required to reach a school.

I would guess the two popular choices for girls in Kowloon side would soon need 25 points to be accepted again.  So the worry is a valid one.  Although with limited information, we can only guess this year by year for when would this happen.  I believe it should happen within the coming 2-3 years.

So whether it is needed to apply to other schools as "backup", I believe it depends on how soon the daughter will be applying for P1.  If just the coming year, I think it is still rather safe (I would not guarantee this), but applying other schools are never a bad idea if the member feel insecure.

Hope the information is useful for other parents as well.

Ian

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 14:47 編輯 ]

iantsang

Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more.  So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let's use example to illustrate the situation:

For example, if the school being target has 5 P1 classes of 30 students each (the large class standard set by EDB).  That means there are total 150 seats, and so there will be 75 seats for sibling studying or parents working in that school seats + DP.  Historically we know some of these popular choices have a high chance that their first 30% seats are already occupied by siblings studying there or parents working there.  So, that would mean there are only 20% seats remain for DP.  In this case, that means just 30 seats (I guess may be this is what wootaitai was referring to).  Need to mention not many primary schools still have classes more than 4 classes so this example is already using a rather high-end of the common cases.

So, is it easy to fill up the 30 seats of old girls' daughters?  I would have to say "yes" since how hard is it to have 30 old girls (with same religion with the school) having babies in the same year?  And don't forget, there are also situations where the elder siblings who study in same campus address also fall into this category.

Hope this is more clear.

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:31 發表
No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying fo ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:16 編輯 ]

iantsang

I assume since you mentioned it is your wife's old school, so the assumption is these old girls should come from the local mother category.

For those over 25 points, they are in the same category so that's why some parents miss this.  If the secondary school is sharing the same address with the primary school, then the young siblings will fall into this points range.

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-4 15:53 發表
多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

iantsang

I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is because I am worried that it is possible a certain assumption may not be risk-free.

At the end, it is just information to be shared among parents to consider.

Thanks very much for your input!

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:10 發表
I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has b ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:40 編輯 ]