25分的部署

ok_ko

25分sure win

ok_ko

25分大部分都是舊生分數+洗禮。目前25分跟出生率的關係不大，除非所有出生的小孩都是來自本地人。 所以除非學校有減班，不然統計學上來講，入不到的機會太微。

ok_ko

No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying for the heritage points, we have to look at the population of the old boys (or girls). It is in fact a big population. Then this population leads to a number of candidates qualifying the 25 pts.

If you told me that there are 29 people with 25 pts and 1 with 20 pts filling up the quota, I believe 25 pts may fail in next year. However if you are talking about 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that filling up the quota, 25 pts is very safe.

By eliminating the DP places, it also reduced the head count of siblings currently studying in that school. I agree in short term it has some effect. However, in long term, it has no effect.

原帖由 wootaitai 於 11-8-4 14:56 發表
The point is that we are talking about around 30 DP places in a particular school every year, say there are 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota.

These are quite "small" nu ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:32 編輯 ]

ok_ko

So, it has been increased by 10% only.

If I continue to use the estimation provided by wootaitai, i.e. 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota, 10% increment will probably generate 2 more candidates with 25 pts. 25 pts is still very safe.

原帖由 小曳人 於 11-8-4 15:12 發表


最近咁啱揾咗d出生數據:
港婦所生:
2003- 36837
2004- 36587
2005- 37560
2006- 39494
2007- 43301
2008- 45257
2009- 44894

就咁睇，出年2007嗰班，真係未必一定得！ ...

ok_ko

I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has been changed, there are 20 candidates having 25 marks entering to the school in each years. Obviously, there are candidates having 25 marks do not apply for that school with some reasons. A population of 2000-3000 people is quite big that if the mean of normal distribution of the # of candidates bearing of 25 marks generated by them is 20 people (let's say the mean is 20), it is quite difficult to have 30 candidates with 25 marks in next year except that the standard deviation is very big. However, if such deviation is big, an elite school should have successful candidates with 20 marks in past years.

True, it is not hard to find 30 candidates with 25 marks from 2000-3000 old boys/girls. However, obviously that there were reasons that not every old boys/girls take the priviledge. Otherwises, 20 points would have chance in the past.

The mean can be changed if there are incidents affecting the decision of the 2000-3000 old boys/girls.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:09 發表
Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more.  So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:26 編輯 ]

ok_ko

True. Actually, my objective is to comfort the owner of this thread. If he is not talking about next year, I will have other comment.
It is always good to play safe.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:38 發表
I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is beca ...