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本帖最後由 b3410 於 20-2-27 22:19 編輯
eviepa 發表於 20-2-27 16:53
回歸我最早提出的例子:
//A國一次瘟疫大爆發,爆發兩個月後有以下的數據:
前面的1/3,這個計算根據定義,數學問題,沒有錯誤。不過疾病致死率是根據時間,人群,治療方法等等而會改變的。
中間的1/3,是如何去解釋手上資料和數據,如果是專業人士,應該會分析為何兩種計算方法的差距,可能原因是什麼。是醫學和流行病學問題。
後1/3, 屬於猜測,是政治和時事問題。
補充,現在認為SARS-CoV-2, 致死率介於1-2%,是比較多認可的一個估計,包括美國CDC。考慮到可能重症未死,輕症無症狀的未診斷,治療方法的改善等等。
再補充,各個國家康復患者數目多少,是因為對康復患者的界定有分歧。例如香港比較審慎,要反復測幾次不同sample都陰性才放人出去。
Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease course or outcome), where comparatively high rates are indicative of relatively poor outcomes. It also can be used to evaluate the effect of new treatments, with measures decreasing as treatments improve. Case fatality rates are not constant; they can vary between populations and over time, depending on the interplay between the causative agent of disease, the host, and the environment as well as available treatments and quality of patient care.
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