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標題: 25分的部署 [打印本頁]

作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-3 16:41 標題: 25分的部署

小女有25分, 太太為傳統名校舊生, 加埋宗教分

該校在區外, 故會先在自行收生階段申請, 但有一個很矛盾問題, 雖然有25分, 但為保險計都會考幾間直資學校, 但又想到當自行收生失敗後, 要面對選擇直資的offer (假設有), 還是等大抽獎 (同樣放該校在第一位), 由於所住的區域較差, 亦不會有搬屋, 借地址等做法, 故如果再放棄直資的offer, 就真的很搏, 現在15/16, 都不知道如何部署好!

作者: karen55407 時間: 11-8-3 17:02

過去無聽過25分入唔到，就算瑪利諾、喇沙都有人20分入到，唔好人憂天喇！疊埋心水等買校服啦！

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-3 16:41 發表
小女有25分, 太太為傳統名校舊生, 加埋宗教分

該校在區外, 故會先在自行收生階段申請, 但有一個很矛盾問題, 雖然有25分, 但為保險計都會考幾間直資學校, 但又想到當自行收生失敗後, 要面對選擇直資的offer (假設有) ...

作者: Sumyeema1 時間: 11-8-3 17:18

25 分唔駛 15 16 喇，一條心直入你太太間小學喇。

如果返學路途遙遠，甘要 plan 下是否可以搬到學校附近，等阿女唔駛甘辛苦。

作者: belle2009 時間: 11-8-3 17:20 標題: 回覆 3# carloslau 的文章

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作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-3 17:45

矛盾在於我是否還要去報直資學校? 不報不心安, 報了又可能是reject offer

作者: ziyi 時間: 11-8-3 17:45

自行只計分,不論住係邊都沒有影響
反而有一些直資是在10月底前公布收生,你take offer就會沒有機會自行
而25分基本上sure win
根本唔需要煩惱

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-3 16:41 發表
小女有25分, 太太為傳統名校舊生, 加埋宗教分

該校在區外, 故會先在自行收生階段申請, 但有一個很矛盾問題, 雖然有25分, 但為保險計都會考幾間直資學校, 但又想到當自行收生失敗後, 要面對選擇直資的offer (假設有) ...

作者: 小曳人 時間: 11-8-3 19:19

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-3 17:45 發表
矛盾在於我是否還要去報直資學校? 不報不心安, 報了又可能是reject offer

如果真係咁擔心嘅，就去報幾間私校

作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-3 21:48

25分sure win

作者: water-lily 時間: 11-8-3 22:26

25分在手都仲要擔心? 幾多人恨都恨唔到呀, 如果真係擔心既, 咪報下心水既直資同私校先, 真係收你先再考慮囉..

作者: marcuscyrus 時間: 11-8-4 01:35

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-3 16:41 發表
小女有25分, 太太為傳統名校舊生, 加埋宗教分

該校在區外, 故會先在自行收生階段申請, 但有一個很矛盾問題, 雖然有25分, 但為保險計都會考幾間直資學校, 但又想到當自行收生失敗後, 要面對選擇直資的offer (假設有) ...

25分仲要部署?難為我呢d得15分，個校網又唔靚的哦..放心好了，25分冇問題啦!!

作者: kelvincheng 時間: 11-8-4 08:40

樓主,

25分sure win,冇得輸.

不過....如果你真是要保險啲,有以下建議:-
1.大部分私校都容許小朋友參加大抽獎(如KTS,APS,SFA,...),可以報這類學校為主.
2.只報自行結果公佈後才要註冊的直資(如培僑,TSL,...).

其實如果真的自行收生失敗,跨區大抽獎的機會就太微了,倒不如先要了心水直資的Offer,到出年六月再叩門.

但是我依然認為你囡囡入梗你太太的母校.

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-3 16:41 發表
小女有25分, 太太為傳統名校舊生, 加埋宗教分

該校在區外, 故會先在自行收生階段申請, 但有一個很矛盾問題, 雖然有25分, 但為保險計都會考幾間直資學校, 但又想到當自行收生失敗後, 要面對選擇直資的offer (假設有) ...

作者: Charlotte_mom 時間: 11-8-4 09:29

近年未聽過25分唔入既例子(EVEN係超級名津小), 你唔需要太擔心喇(ASSUME你肯定無計錯分, 例如宗教分, 上下午校果D咁既野)

學樓上話齋, 如果真係好擔心, 就考D可以大抽獎既私校做BACKUP啦, 直資就唔好喇, 收左就要放棄政府派位, 到時你仲15/16呀

作者: unfair123 時間: 11-8-4 10:16

其實想知邊間學校?為何令樓主25分還擔心?

作者: OB-father 時間: 11-8-4 10:47

除非唔想讀太太間舊校,25分根本冇可能唔收,樓主太杞人憂天
幾多人恨都恨唔到,你竟然仲擔心呢樣,擔心果樣

作者: karen55407 時間: 11-8-4 11:53

我聽到有一個唔多熟嘅家長話佢個女有25分今年會抽跑馬地聖保祿，都仲係好擔心，都唔知佢係唔係樓主？

作者: rai_fc 時間: 11-8-4 13:51

hehe..., i acutally understand his concern. With many more babies in these years, sooner or later 25 pts can't guarantee to get in.
My boy also has 25 pts but I don't think is 100% either, especially 2008 has many baby boys!

作者: GoodGrief 時間: 11-8-4 13:55

之前有一個家長在Baby Kindgom話佢個女有25分今年會抽Maryknoll，但就不停問有冇人20分入到Maryknoll，因為驚25分都要抽，都唔知佢係唔係樓主？

作者: w_y 時間: 11-8-4 14:12

我都明白，始終都要手拿入學證果刻感覺先至實在。一年比一年艱難，名校學位只減不增，出生人數又係咁升，25分下年我估都 sure win, 但再過多兩年, 就真係唔包. 我都識名校舊生家長, 20分怕唔得, 走左去幫BB 領埋洗, 正係唔怕一萬至怕萬一. 某幾間超熱門, 今年收20分都係小貓幾隻, 兩三年後25分相信一樣都要抽, 有風險架.

作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-4 14:25 標題: 回復 18# w_y 的帖子

25分大部分都是舊生分數+洗禮。目前25分跟出生率的關係不大，除非所有出生的小孩都是來自本地人。所以除非學校有減班，不然統計學上來講，入不到的機會太微。

作者: iantsang 時間: 11-8-4 14:45

I think there are two questions from the member:

(1) Whether 25 points is secured to reach his wife's old school;
(2) Struggle to apply other "better" DSS/ private schools in parallel.  If being accepted, then how to choose.

First, we have just experienced the first year of P1 allocation with upward trend.  So, we are in a process that we must re-assess all the previous data we collected.  For example, I have seen schools which usually have high chances with 15 points, turns out the DP seats are almost (over 95%) filled with 20 points.  2005 is the first year for birth rate to increase in average of 10-15%.  So there will only be more applications.

Another reason which causes the higher demand of points in DP is due to the seats available in P1.  In the past, some of the popular gov't aided schools can have class size up to almost 40.  However, with the policy implemented two years ago, the biggest size is now 30 (plus 10% door-knocking seats which doesn't affect DP seats).  So, that means there are less seats in DP.

What does it tell us?  There are less DP seats for more babies.  A very simple math.  So it would push the marks required to reach a school.

I would guess the two popular choices for girls in Kowloon side would soon need 25 points to be accepted again.  So the worry is a valid one.  Although with limited information, we can only guess this year by year for when would this happen.  I believe it should happen within the coming 2-3 years.

So whether it is needed to apply to other schools as "backup", I believe it depends on how soon the daughter will be applying for P1.  If just the coming year, I think it is still rather safe (I would not guarantee this), but applying other schools are never a bad idea if the member feel insecure.

Hope the information is useful for other parents as well.

Ian

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 14:47 編輯 ]

作者: wootaitai 時間: 11-8-4 14:56

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作者: lovelyaudrey 時間: 11-8-4 15:10

過往經驗, 有邊D直資會係自行分配前已公佈收生呢?

作者: 小曳人 時間: 11-8-4 15:12

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 14:25 發表
25分大部分都是舊生分數+洗禮。目前25分跟出生率的關係不大，除非所有出生的小孩都是來自本地人。所以除非學校有減班，不然統計學上來講，入不到的機會太微。 ...

最近咁啱揾咗d出生數據:
港婦所生:
2003- 36837
2004- 36587
2005- 37560
2006- 39494
2007- 43301
2008- 45257
2009- 44894

就咁睇，出年2007嗰班，真係未必一定得！

作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-4 15:31

No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying for the heritage points, we have to look at the population of the old boys (or girls). It is in fact a big population. Then this population leads to a number of candidates qualifying the 25 pts.

If you told me that there are 29 people with 25 pts and 1 with 20 pts filling up the quota, I believe 25 pts may fail in next year. However if you are talking about 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that filling up the quota, 25 pts is very safe.

By eliminating the DP places, it also reduced the head count of siblings currently studying in that school. I agree in short term it has some effect. However, in long term, it has no effect.

原帖由 wootaitai 於 11-8-4 14:56 發表
The point is that we are talking about around 30 DP places in a particular school every year, say there are 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota.

These are quite "small" nu ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:32 編輯 ]

作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-4 15:46

So, it has been increased by 10% only.

If I continue to use the estimation provided by wootaitai, i.e. 20 people with 25 pts and 10 with 20 pts that fill up the quota, 10% increment will probably generate 2 more candidates with 25 pts. 25 pts is still very safe.

原帖由 小曳人 於 11-8-4 15:12 發表

最近咁啱揾咗d出生數據:
港婦所生:
2003- 36837
2004- 36587
2005- 37560
2006- 39494
2007- 43301
2008- 45257
2009- 44894

就咁睇，出年2007嗰班，真係未必一定得！ ...

作者: wootaitai 時間: 11-8-4 15:51

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作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-4 15:53

多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

作者: wootaitai 時間: 11-8-4 16:01 標題: 回復 1# carloslau 的帖子

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作者: iantsang 時間: 11-8-4 16:09

Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more.  So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let's use example to illustrate the situation:

For example, if the school being target has 5 P1 classes of 30 students each (the large class standard set by EDB).  That means there are total 150 seats, and so there will be 75 seats for sibling studying or parents working in that school seats + DP.  Historically we know some of these popular choices have a high chance that their first 30% seats are already occupied by siblings studying there or parents working there.  So, that would mean there are only 20% seats remain for DP.  In this case, that means just 30 seats (I guess may be this is what wootaitai was referring to).  Need to mention not many primary schools still have classes more than 4 classes so this example is already using a rather high-end of the common cases.

So, is it easy to fill up the 30 seats of old girls' daughters?  I would have to say "yes" since how hard is it to have 30 old girls (with same religion with the school) having babies in the same year?  And don't forget, there are also situations where the elder siblings who study in same campus address also fall into this category.

Hope this is more clear.

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 15:31 發表
No. We are not looking at the population who can enter the school. To acquire 25 pts, the candidate should heritage 10 pts from siblings or parent. To estimate the total number of person qualifying fo ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:16 編輯 ]

作者: iantsang 時間: 11-8-4 16:13

I assume since you mentioned it is your wife's old school, so the assumption is these old girls should come from the local mother category.

For those over 25 points, they are in the same category so that's why some parents miss this. If the secondary school is sharing the same address with the primary school, then the young siblings will fall into this points range.

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-4 15:53 發表
多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

作者: wootaitai 時間: 11-8-4 16:22

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作者: 小曳人 時間: 11-8-4 16:26

原帖由 carloslau 於 11-8-4 15:53 發表
多謝各位的回應, 先不談是那間名校, 女兒是2007年出生, 想問一下為什麼只考慮港婦所生? 另外, 35分及30分的是否在另一個pool而對25分沒有影響?

大6人，應該無old girls掛~~

作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-4 16:42 標題: 回覆 28# wootaitai 的文章

也有綜合大家的意見, 看過一些私校, 不是學費太貴, 就是在中學的銜接一般, 真的很難選擇

作者: wootaitai 時間: 11-8-4 17:08 標題: 回復 1# carloslau 的帖子

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作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-4 17:10

I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has been changed, there are 20 candidates having 25 marks entering to the school in each years. Obviously, there are candidates having 25 marks do not apply for that school with some reasons. A population of 2000-3000 people is quite big that if the mean of normal distribution of the # of candidates bearing of 25 marks generated by them is 20 people (let's say the mean is 20), it is quite difficult to have 30 candidates with 25 marks in next year except that the standard deviation is very big. However, if such deviation is big, an elite school should have successful candidates with 20 marks in past years.

True, it is not hard to find 30 candidates with 25 marks from 2000-3000 old boys/girls. However, obviously that there were reasons that not every old boys/girls take the priviledge. Otherwises, 20 points would have chance in the past.

The mean can be changed if there are incidents affecting the decision of the 2000-3000 old boys/girls.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 16:09 發表
Agree that you have a point that many people are excluded automatically to ever receive 25 points or more. So the overall birth rate's effect may be less significant (but it is a trend in fact).

Let ...

[ 本帖最後由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:26 編輯 ]

作者: iantsang 時間: 11-8-4 17:38

I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is because I am worried that it is possible a certain assumption may not be risk-free.

At the end, it is just information to be shared among parents to consider.

Thanks very much for your input!

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:10 發表
I understand your argument.

The candidates bearing 25 points may come from a population of 2000-3000 old boys/girls (either parent or siblings). I am still using wootaitai's figure. If nothing has b ...

[ 本帖最後由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:40 編輯 ]

作者: ok_ko 時間: 11-8-4 17:49

True. Actually, my objective is to comfort the owner of this thread. If he is not talking about next year, I will have other comment.
It is always good to play safe.

原帖由 iantsang 於 11-8-4 17:38 發表
I guess we got carried away over this discussion so let's be focused on the member's question rather than who is right or wrong here.

The reason that I feel responsible to illustrate the data is beca ...

作者: w_y 時間: 11-8-4 18:48

講清楚D我朋友個case: 父母係不同宗教, 但為左兒子"必定" 入到父親母校, 母親驚起上來至趕快安排洗禮. 如非兩三年後學位預計會非常緊張, 母定不作此安排. (此舉是非對錯不欲在此討論) 即係話會多左原先20分的人, 升呢變左25分.

我還記得女兒初出生, BK 很多人跟我說九龍某女校20分必收, 我原已打算讓女兒小一升讀, 結果女兒3 歲時, 20 分已收唔晒. 當時好多家長都好意外, 早知抽紅磚屋好過. 世事總是難料, 數就係咁計出來, 但到時真正有幾多人揀就無人知.
另外仲有一種組合, 係男士娶內地女性所生的孩子, 絕對有人夠25 分. 當然比例上會少D.
女星都流行嫁內地男士/外國人啦.

作者: SCKnight 時間: 11-8-5 01:39

我身邊都有好多人揸住25分。
而呢批人黎黎去去都係港島區同九龍傳統一線名校。
重要面對縮班或轉全日，佢地都覺得揸呢25分都敢講一定入硬。只係機會較高。

作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-5 08:50

我又想問問大家, 有那些直資/私立, 個offer會和大抽獎結果的時間差不多的?

作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-5 08:52

九龍區, 暫時無頭緒

原帖由 wootaitai 於 11-8-4 17:08 發表
你港島或九龍？

香港可考慮St Clare, 真光等

其實都是一個保險，雖然25分都好安全，但萬一有意外，你連報都唔報就可能後恢

作者: carloslau 時間: 11-8-5 08:54

原帖由 ok_ko 於 11-8-4 17:49 發表
True. Actually, my objective is to comfort the owner of this thread. If he is not talking about next year, I will have other comment.
It is always good to play safe.

是下年報, 2013年入學, 但我見正如閣下所講, 出生人口上升加上小班, 儘早看看有甚麼部署可做?

作者: scotia.nova 時間: 11-8-5 13:43

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作者: spmok1999 時間: 11-9-9 15:43

我估係聖心???

因為佢話如果考直/私都唔得, 大抽獎都放第一位 ...

作者: Chingding 時間: 11-9-9 17:24

九龍區好多私校：DGS、真光、德望、培正、德雅、SFA、宣道，可以自行，可以大抽獎試，睇你報唔報啫。直資TLS 有第二輪，大抽獎之後先報都得。

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