四大天王: 東男拔, 西女拔, 南聖小, 北保羅

wingsma

原帖由 PhdJessiema 於 10-11-6 03:23 發表
This year nearly 65000 prospective P1 students, then the percentage of entering the renowned schools are as follows:

SSCPS = 99 available seats for 65000 same-aged group kids = 0.15%

SPCCPS = 150/65 ...

I'm afraid you've made it too simple.

say for a primary school which only has one class of 35 place at most for the next year, then is the percentage to go to that school :
35/65000= 0.054%

Conclusion: 1 out of 1857 kids can enter that school, one of the hardest in town???

[ 本帖最後由 wingsma 於 10-11-6 07:26 編輯 ]

hui916

I don't want to continue with the debate with you on some issues that have no easy or readily available answers. They are argumentative by nature, and different parents have their own preferences.

I do know some parents who decide to transfer their kids from very famus international schools back to top traditional schools, as they their kids to have more discipline, habits and motivation.

What I want to point out here is that your calculation about the probability is fundamentally wrong. Let's do a simple exercise to show how miserable you are in terms of numerical sense:

There are 10 balls in a box, 5 in blue and 5 in red
How is the probability of drawing one ball that is either red or blue?

The answer is: 1/10 + 1/10 = 1/5

Put it in your scenario: out of 2000 applications, assuming 50:50 gender mix. What is the probability that either an girl or a boy admitted to SSCPS? For the sake of simplicity, we assume there are 100 places instead of 99.

The answer is: 50/2000 + 50/2000 = 5%

Unfortunately, by your logic, another half of opposite sex is excluded from the pool, resulting in 2.5% of probability! You are right saying that Kindergarten kids learn probability nowadays!

原帖由 PhdJessiema 於 10-11-6 02:46 發表
Well, you have shared many interesting insights about SCPCS, and made comparisons with other top schools in many dimension. (That's not a easy thing. Thanks for your appreciation) Then you jumped to t ...

4eyesDad

I'm new to this forum, and I need to declare an interest. My child has applied to all but one of the "Big Four" primary schools this year. Like all parents, I am eagerly waiting for further interviews and final decision.

For the time being, I look around for more information (both subjective and objective) about all these schools in the unlikely event that my child has the luxury of making a choice.

Probablility is of no interest to me, because any child who is accepted by any of these schools has in fact "achieved" (if I may use that word) more than a Harvard Freshman or an Oxford first year undergraduate in terms of coming on top of so many applicants. I find the applicants:places ratio unrealistic. It may reveal more about the odd (some say mad or unfair) education system and structure we are having in HK.

I know each child is different and early success is no guarantee of future successes. Anyway, I wish all parents every success.

survivor

Hi PhdJessiema
May I ask you to stop making comments on SSCPS? SSCPS is my first priority indeed. I think your comments do harm the public impression on SSCPS, as you hard-sell too much. I really mean it. If you want to help SSCPS to rise up as one of the top four primary schools in town, please pray for SSCPS OR if your child is SSCPS student, help him/her do the best in academic and non-academic aspects.

May I also ask all the others to take it easy on this topic? I can see SSCPS is fighting hard to catch up with its fame. Give SSCPS and all its students a breathing end. Some of the adverse comments are too personal and harsh. Too many unpleasant words!

mhddm

Totally agree

原帖由 survivor 於 10-11-6 19:37 發表
Hi PhdJessiema
May I ask you to stop making comments on SSCPS? SSCPS is my first priority indeed. I think your comments do harm the public impression on SSCPS, as you hard-sell too much. I really mean ...

qqzzma

As a SSCPS parent, i support suvivor's comments.

原帖由 survivor 於 10-11-6 19:37 發表
Hi PhdJessiema
May I ask you to stop making comments on SSCPS? SSCPS is my first priority indeed. I think your comments do harm the public impression on SSCPS, as you hard-sell too much. I really mean ...

ssckid

原帖由 hui916 於 10-11-6 09:01 發表
I don't want to continue with the debate with you on some issues that have no easy or readily available answers. They are argumentative by nature, and different parents have their own preferences.

I  ...

你的假設是學校有50個位給予男孩子，另外50個給予女孩子，所以男孩子祇和男孩子競爭，女孩子祇和女孩子競爭。但是如果學校沒有性別喜好，祇要是合適的孩子就收，這樣你的統計便不對，反而應該是總學位數目除以總申請人數才對。不知我這個算法對不對？

事實上聖小應該是男仔比女仔多，我小兒數年前畢業，學校男女生比例基本上是七三之比。不過我不知道是學校的政策問題，申請人數在性別上的分別，男仔在面試的表現較好，或是其它因素，則無法得知了。

ssckid

原帖由 hui916 於 10-11-6 09:01 發表
I don't want to continue with the debate with you on some issues that have no easy or readily available answers. They are argumentative by nature, and different parents have their own preferences.

I  ...

我再諗深一層，應該是這樣：
如果你想將男女分開計算各自的機會率，應該是
50/1000 + 50/1000，假設2000申請者男女申請比例是1:1，結果為1%。不過這樣算法有問題，因為你的小孩祇能是男或女。所以正確的機會率應該是100/2000，即5%。